$4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks
Anybody have a clue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?
The two sales are being referred to by market traders as "bin Laden trades" because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these short-sell options valuable.
There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points away from current value. No one would buy that deep "in the money" calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seen before.
The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!
Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.
THEORIES:
The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock and options markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual activity reported above and two stories below. Those theories are:
1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept. 21 to tank the markets, OR;
2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this activity.
"$1.78 Billion Bet that Stock Markets will crash by third week in September Anonymous Stock Trader Sells 10K Contracts on EVERY S&P/Y "Strike" Shorts Stocks "in the money" effectively selling all his SPY holdings for cash up front without pressuring the market downward.
This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes right, the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of pocket costs for buying these options will exceed $700 Million!!! The entity who sold these contracts can only make money if the stock market totally crashes by the third week in September.
Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusual stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks of September 11.
Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks.
Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened.
The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in September, seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is in the works and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."
Source: Ticker Forum
RELATED: Unusual trading activity before 9/11
..who would bet 700 million dollars on something so risky? unless of course.. the shillin' shamites are fixin' for another terrorist attack; their favorite Modus Operandi.
..get your survival gear in order, this one could be a nasty step in the ZWO's obsessive plan..
..who would have thought that even when they have it all, they must resort to the lowest tactics known to man; for if you wield satan's sword, he will stab you in the back with his main-gauche..
..truly depraved and desperate, such irony..
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22303955-2703,00.html
Bob Baer, "former" Middle East CIA operative??
It could be a trick
At the battle of Napoleon in Waterloo, the head of the London Rothschild family had his own intelligence agents there.
It´s said they send doves over to tell him that Napoleon had lost and Britain has won.
That´s when Rothschild sold all his stock of British bonds.
Everybody else on the stockexchange who watched him, panicked and started selling too.
English bond stocks fell so deep that they became virtually worthless.
At this moment Rothschild bought them all back and when the real news came through he had taken over the British stock exchange and had become the richest man in the world.
I could not find any news coverage of this to verify it. All I could find were articles of similar mystery trading in European markets.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third
Renée Schultes...
Sunday, August 26, 2007
The Fed: Something big is going to happen
Related
Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third
$4.5b bet on another 9/11 within 4 weeks
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**** !!! URGENT !!! ****
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD OF GOVERNORS MEETING TO TAKE PLACE AT "C.O.G." FACILITY
IN JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING ON AUGUST 31 !
C.O.G. STANDS FOR "CONTINUITY OF GOVERNMENT" AND IS A SUPER-HIGH-SECURITY, UNDERGROUND MILITARY INSTALLATION DESIGNED AS A SANCTUARY FOR GOVERNMENT...
like these head the economy.
they're in charge - with they're insane trading, inside dealings, and covert acts they take the whole world on a garrish rollercoaster ride to hell.
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"Money" has no value - people do.
Despite the Federal reserve cutting the discount rate for loans to big banks the liquidity crunch continues. The reason being that the banks can only borrow money from the FED using the highest rated assets as collateral. Remember that the FED is not your father's bank, it is a privately owned bank. The owners of FED, the super rich, are not stupid and will not lend money without thorough guarantees and collateral.
That is why some of these banks did not take up the money offered by the FED, because lot these banks have worthless assets or they themselves are walking bankrupts and so the credit crunch continues.
The stock market will crash between September to October 2007 not because of any "terrorist" act but because of the terrorism of the money lenders, stock brokers and mortgage companies.
The recent rise in the stock market is a sucker's rally that was meant to buy time for a while allowing, the super rich who own the FED and the bit less super rich who own the big banks, mortgage companies, big name stock brokers and handful of insiders, to onload all the risks on to unsuspecting Joe six packs, foreign buyers and others who believe in the "system"
The markets would have continued crashing through August but it was the collusion between all the Super rich to create a sucker's rally to pass on their bad debt on to others.
We are going to see a deflation and depression that will be worse than the 1929 one.
All asset classes will lose tremendous value. That includes bricks and mortars, gold, silver and other metals, because consumers will be bankrupted.
That is the reason why some insiders have shorted the indexes. Expect S&P to go around 750 or less.
Subject in my comment should read "Expect a stock market crash"
..how cash and crash are so punny, like many things in engels, you know!
..you guys were right about US-AG alberto gonzales; he's gone as of this morning, to be replaced with the lich chertoff perhaps?
..one by one the bush admin's players take the heat for their masters, then slink off and hide from the law no doubt!
..the bushs will escape to South america, where they own vast swaths of land in Paraguay/Uraguay.
(to be hunted down by the natives)
These trades are simply bear trades and are most probably due to the global market turbulance being experienced.
The likes of Soros & Co play this big and in this way. Big bears turn up when they think the market is going south. It does not necessarily imply a terrorist event, most likely at this time it represents a lack of confidence in the CAD3 mathematical models that are causing the 'margin calls' on bank capital at the moment. The entire New Capital Accord framework is pivoted on these models, but due to fundamental mathematical flaws they were bound to collapse eventually. They were also bound to collapse together!
These contracts will make big money on a relatively small drop, due to the leverage. The speculator (this is not an investor - futures and not investments) is probably looking for a 1-2% market drop to get a 30-50% return.
Cara’s Commentary: The “Terrorism Put”
I reposted your article and my readers have inquiring minds. Can you answer some of their questions in the comment area of the post here,
http://mparent7777-2.blogspot.com/2007/08/45b-bet-on-another-911-within-...
Plus, a radio station has asked for an interview. I passed. Too busy.
Do you want to give it a go?
tiffany@trunews.com wrote:
Marc Parent,
Tiffy Rose has sent you a message
via your contact form.
Message:
Mr. Parent,
I hope this email finds you. I have been trying to find a way to contact
you and this was the only source I have found. I work for Trunews, a
one-hour daily Christian radio program in Chattanooga, TN that has been
broadcasting on International Short Wave radio since 1998.
Our host Rick Wiles, former director of marketing for TBN, read one of
your blogs titled, "$4.5b bet on another 9/11 within 4 weeks," and wanted
to invite you to be a guest on our program. The interview would be short
(10-15 minutes) and prerecorded by phone. I know this is a short notice
and you may not receive this email today, but if possible, he would like
to have you on the program today (Aug 27). If you don't receive this in
time, he wanted me to see if we could schedule an interview with you for
another day this week.
You can contact me through our office line at 423-559-7820 or email me
back at tiffany@trunews.com for more information. Also, we have a website
www.trunews.com. I look forward to hearing from you!
Thanks and God bless,
Tiffany Rose
Trunews
Guest Coordinator
Marc,
I can make no comment as to the veracity of the story. The 'source' was a post on the Ticker Forum.
Articles such as this one seem to suggest that something is afoot, even it is only a massive ruse.
I'll pass on the radio interview, as I am too busy, I'm not happy commenting on something I am uncertain about and anyway, I'm on the other side of the world, so timing would be a problem.
By the way, I see Alex "buy my DVD" Jones or one of his crew has you down as a "financial blogger".
US Opposition Political Leaders Issue Urgent False Flag Terror Warning
Betting on a crash?
Can any experienced traders respond to that?
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"Money" has no value - people do.
his story makes sense to me, I don't see it as a red flag to terrorism but terrorist activity could/would effect the market(s). Peace
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Pray the Rosary Daily
Bill takes the story seriously enough to bring it up for discussion,
Cara’s Commentary: The “Terrorism Put”
As does Desidooru Saloon of Daily Reckoning,
Betting on a crash?
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To qrswave,
Opinions are widely dispersed on the bet. As your comment selection indicates, many traders can be downright rude. It's part of the "fun".
Congressman: Stock Market Will Eventually Collapse
'Bin Laden' Options Trades Have Wall Street Whispering
How about this:
Buying Deep "in-the-money" calls is not neccesarily a bad idea. Further selling them is even better. Also this would be much more alarming if they were selling and buying puts.
Regardless you are all forgetting one thing.
FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meets on Sept. 18th and decides if they should cut the Federal Funds Rate. Which, they probably will not. This will be your "catasrophe" as you claim. This is because treasury futures have a 50 basis point decrease priced into them. Therefore when the FOMC does not cut the fed funds rate, there will be a run on the market, and cause a significant loss. At which point they will shut down, and open again the next day, where the same thing will happen.
If you think people are actively pricing the market based on a speculative call about some Terrorist attack or chineese liquidation of US treasuries, you are the very people that have no business investing. If you believe this, take all of your money to Edward Jones, JPM, Fidelity, anyone who can manage your money for you, because you will eventually lose it.
From what I have read, 90% of you are all IGNORANT of the way markets work.
if you're so intelligent, why don't you explain why the feds agreed to allow citibank and BofA to loan up to 30% of their reserves to their brokerage arms?
Also, I think the FOMC will cut rates again at least in the near term. If they don't, it's all part of the master plan - to pull the monetary rug out from underneath our economy.
Big Banks are just waiting until all the favored players are positioned to win from it.
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"Money" has no value - people do.
From intellegentinvestor
I can tell you exactly how they work.
They take from those who actually do work and give to those who don't do shit.
ITS always been a mechanism to rob the poor and feed the rich (fiat shit).
So take you're usery genius back to those who worship money. Usery is wrong,...period.
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it"...Voltaire
Are Big Banks betting America's savings on a market crash?
Citi Research Discusses a Dow Crash Scenario
Dear All,
It is fairly annoying to see these trades being referred to as 'bin Laden' trades when we are all supposed to be fairly certain that UBL had nothing to do with the attacks and we are all supposed to be absolutely certain that he had nothing to do with the pre-9/11 trades.
Also, everyone keeps referring to these trades as a 'bet'. How can this possibly be the case? This amount of exposure is almost always against an existing portfolio position. Otherwise only big bears with very deep pockets would be allowed to take such a position with their broker.
Someone somewhere has a large US equities portfolio mix, for instance maybe Goldman Sachs, highly probable candidates for this kind of position after their spectacular losses in their flagship 'Global Equity Fund'. They can't afford to take any more shrinkage on the portfolio, so they take out a hedge for the entire portfolio.
When hedging a diverse portfolio a professional institution will almost always hedge with an index. And herein is the rub.
The suspicious 9/11 trades were entirely different from these trades in the following important respects: 1) Pre 9/11 there had been little market turbulence and the event caused shock; whereas the global markets are at present already in financial panic. 2) The pre 9/11 trades were on specific equities, airline stocks, that were bound to suffer as a result of the events; whereas these trades are on the whole US equities market. 3) The profiteers with INSIDER knowledge made only a few million dollars in total profits, whereas futures (or options) positions of this magnitude require enormous deposits to be placed with the brokers. For instance, the initial margin on US$ 250k TBill on most exchanges is US$1000.
As for the specifics of these alleged trades. If we could find out exactly which contracts these positions are supposed to have been taken in, and on which exchange(s), we could examine the 'open interest' (total number of open contracts, at the various maturities and, if options contracts, strikes and call/puts) and find out if the above claim is mathematically true.
Respectfully,
Muhammad.
speculate whether these recent "put options" could be an alternative way of pumping money into the stock market?
Maybe it is one of many different strategies being implemented simultaneously?
Anyone work in this field?