Why Chavez Lost: A Primer on Fear and Propaganda
Opinion
Perhaps Chavez learned a lesson from the failure of Venezuela’s referendum.
If not, here is a primer for him…
How could someone object to free health care and education, or to working fewer hours for greater wages?
Answer: fear. Venezuela’s elite distributed propaganda that claimed Chavez would take everything away.
In all societies, the elite is motivated by greed and selfishness, while average people are motivated by fear. The elite knows it can easily sway people by scaring them. Their lies are always the same, always absurd, and always effective. The more ridiculous, the more powerful. People reject the absurdities, but remain frightened. Who is an informer? Who are the “pod people”? The schism between rhetoric and reality is a twilight zone in which the elite rule as shadowy gods.
Propaganda works because average people deny that it works. Most people think they’re too smart to be taken in. Because they’re in denial, they don’t respond to facts, logic, truth, or reality. Instead, they respond to vague threats and continuous alarmism. Bush says, “You’re too smart to be taken in by Islamic propaganda.” Then America marches to Bush propaganda while saying, “I’m too smart to be taken in by propaganda.”
The elite always uses fear and repetition, because societies always behave like cattle. If the herd breaks out of its corral, it can easily be stampeded back to the slaughterhouse by a false flag operation, plus repeated claims that the wolves are lurking. Many of the stampeding cattle fall off a cliff, but the elite doesn’t care. They have no moral conscience. They regard everyone and everything as objects to be used and discarded. They happily murder thousands. Their depravity conceals itself, because the herd refuses to acknowledge that such depravity exists.
Most reformers are likewise in denial. They assume they will win because they have right on their side, and because goodness is self-evident. They assume that average people are reasonable, interested in truth, desirous of freedom, and unlikely to vote against their own self-interest. They assume that societies do not behave like cattle. This is an error. Average people just want to survive another day. They respond to fear, and to endless repetition of slogans. War on terror – war on terror – war on terror.
The reformer’s delusion makes him think he will have no enemies if he helps everyone, rich and poor alike. Yet, when the elite orders him crucified, the peasants willingly carry it out. This is not because the peasants are no good. It is because reformers’ delusions keep them from truly understanding peasant psychology.
Even Chavez went into denial. He was certain that right and truth would prevail. Therefore he allowed TV stations to keep broadcasting propaganda against him, when he should have passed laws requiring TV to give equal time to both sides.
Chavez gave long speeches, like all leftist reformers. He assumed that everyone would listen, since everyone would benefit by reform. By contrast, elitists give buzzwords and slogans. They assume that no one will listen -- not consciously anyway. Elitists know that slogans work, especially on people who think they’re immune. Any con man will tell you that the best target is he who insists he is immune from con men.
The elite have no denial, no delusions, and no creativity. They don’t need creativity. Their goal is simple: power for themselves. Their method is equally simple: repeat the lies as often as possible, and kill any individual who learns too much. They regard morality as a means to an end. They will be brutal or benevolent – whatever gets them power.
Reformers cannot make cattle into people overnight. They must lead the herd away from the slaughterhouse step-by-step, as the U.S. government has led America to fascism step by step. People will adjust in time. Even the elite will adjust eventually. In 1999, Venezuela’s elite screamed when Venezuela got a new constitution. Last night they screamed that Venezuela must stay with the 1999 constitution.
There is no need for false flag murders, but there is a need to regard people as cattle -- or if one prefers, a “flock.”
In the meantime, Chavez was a victim of his own success. Venezuela’s booming economy made average people lackadaisical. Chavez won 12 elections and referendums with a lot of public energy each time – but this time the nation was quiet. I listened to radio from Venezuela for hours. Many people commented on the surprising lack of voter excitement. Energy picked up after 8:00 pm when everyone waited for news of results, but the nation had been very still in the daylight hours. Perhaps it was a mistake to have the vote on a Sunday.
Also it seems (from photos) that Venezuela used electronic voting machines. If true, it may explain a lot. Former employees from Diebold and other companies have publicly revealed that voting machines are rigged to produce a 51-49 result one way or the other, with no detectable tampering. Sarkozy used electronic machines to seize power in France. If Venezuela used the machines, where did Venezuela buy them?
The referendum was democratic, but it will not stop the elite. They will now denounce every reform as “retribution” for the failed vote. They will call it “retribution” when Chavez stops a drug lord or a mass murderer. Truth is no defense against the elite. Instead, elitists must be eliminated, piece-by-piece.
Usually the elite will not move unless benefits will come regardless of results. Heads I win; tails you lose. Chavez must adopt the same strategy. When he plans a move, he must always assume he might fail, and must proceed in a way that hurts the elite no matter what happens.
He must also play the divide-and-conquer game. When Sarkozy could not get his elitist plans through France, he targeted public workers, knowing a strike would turn the masses against Sarkoy's target. Sarkozy divided public workers from all other workers. When the public workers are conquered, Sarkozy will divide everyone else, crushing them section-by-section until all are enslaved.
Chavez must also start using false flag operations. Normally when he identifies elitists that – for example – shut down agricultural production in order to cause shortages and boost prices, he nationalizes such facilities. This is not effective. It solidifies elitist resistance. Instead, Chavez should torch the assets of one elitist while making sure the blame is placed on a competing elitist. He must divide and conquer. He must concentrate on getting results, not on being “right.” He need not become ruthless, but he must become pragmatic and Machiavellian. Nor does he need to harm average people. Before torching an elitist farm, he could first make sure another farm stands ready to employ displaced workers.
Chavez is still learning. He’s only been in politics for ten years. Iranians have played the game for thirty years; Castro sixty. They know this is a war in which their opponents take no prisoners. Chavez knows it too, but now he realizes it more than ever.
In the long run, the referendum’s failure might help Chavez. Had the referendum succeeded, there would have been bickering over how the changes would be implemented. The tasks ahead would be monumental. Before the vote, I heard people on radio Caracas (who thought they had it in the bag) say they found the path ahead daunting. There was so much work to be done. How would all the changes worked out?
Now they are more focused than ever. Now they will take nothing for granted. Now they will proceed step by step until the constitutional changes are a de facto reality. This same step-by-step factor will also apply to Nicaragua, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Bolivia, which are all going through similar revolutions.
I listened to radio Caracas today. The English speakers were disappointed, but Spanish speakers’ attitude might be summed up as, “Okay mother f***kers – you wanna dance? Let’s Dance!”
This attitude is not limited to Venezuela. The entire world was listening last night. Even Hezbollah people in South Lebanon have pictures of Chavez in their homes. I imagine Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, for example, sent troops all over the country to remind the elites not to gloat too loudly.
The revolution will continue. The USA will become even more tyrannical as it starts to collapse, thereby fueling the revolution all the more.
Yes, the revolution will continue to spread. A far bigger struggle is happening in neighboring Bolivia, where Bush will ignite a civil war if he can. Chavez has tried to maintain a low profile with regard to Bolivia in order to avoid accusations of meddling, but now he will probably change.
Ultimately there’s a good chance that last night’s defeat was the worst thing that could happen to the elites. Chavez is threatening to seize Spanish banks and oil companies. He is a friend of Putin, whose party won the election in Russia by 60 percent. He’s working and Iran and China, which is now the richest nation on earth. China needs oil. Venezuela would love to sell oil to China.
Oh no, the game is not over.
It’s just beginning.
I agree with almost everything you said - people need to be led away from the fire step by step, using language and tactics that their brainwashed reactionary minds understand.
I don't agree that Chavez or anyone else should employ covert tactics used by the elite. This will only worsen the situation and increase distrust of Chavez's administration.
But at the same time, I agree that Chavez cannot take things for granted and expect people to join him and support him just because he's right.
He must be continually on the offense, always monitoring them for opportunities to bring them down through criminal or administrative prosecution while at the same time developing grass roots political campaigns to turn the people against them.
He must never rest on his laurels. He must remain forever vigilant, for so do they.
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"Money" has no value - people do.
” I don't agree that Chavez or anyone else should employ covert tactics used by the elite. This will only worsen the situation and increase distrust of Chavez's administration.”
I appreciate your thinking, and I did not write those comments lightly. I think Chavez needs to do anything and everything possible to defeat the elitists short of physically harming anyone. He’s doesn’t need to lie, but he doesn’t need to be too forthcoming either.
And yes, I do advocate false flag operations, since poverty in South America is extreme, and the elitists are ruthless. Elitists use B-52s to carpet-bomb civilians in the Middle East. I advocate any means to stop this madness. No more mister nice guy.
” I don't agree that Chavez or anyone else should employ covert tactics used by the elite.”
Should Hizbullah not use covert tactics? Should they not shoot back? This is a war. People are being starved, tortured, maimed, and murdered. The elites only understand force. If we can’t neutralize them, we must cleanse them. The gloves must come off.
I’m saying Chavez must become very pragmatic.
As far as increasing distrust of Chavez's administration, how much worse can the mistrust get? Chavez is already “Hitler.” The elites will attack him no matter what he does.
Thanks for your comment.
Chavez was reelected President until the end of 2012. The margin on the referendum to allow him unlimited terms of office was 49-51 - well within the margin of frauds and the turnout was around 56%.
Chavez has handled this so called defeat well - like a true democratic leader who respects the will of the people.
A lot WILL happen in the next 5 years and the people of Venezuela will have a hard choice, much like the people of Russia have - continue to make progress or risk falling prey to the cannibalistic American machine.
They will make the right choice next time.
There’s another reason why it may be a good thing the referendum was defeated.
Venezuela depends on food imports. If the referendum had gone through, then outsiders would have punished Venezuela by cutting off supplies of food, and of items like cosmetics and over-the-counter medicines. Venezuela can’t be completely blockaded like Cuba (an island nation) but outsiders can hurt Venezuela anyway.
Food is Chávez’ Achilles heel. This is the one sector where the elites still have power. Venezuela must import most of its food, because of the limited development of its farming sector.
Thus, in some ways, Venezuela is not materially ready for a full revolution.
Venezuela is the largest oil producer in Latin America, and the world's fifth largest oil exporter. Gasoline costs less than bottled water -- but food remains a problem.
The elites cause some of these problems, but Venezuela’s prosperity also causes problems. The boom in consumer spending causes higher consumption of food and consumer goods. During the first trimester of 2007, the rate of consumption rose 18.5 percent, up from the 15 percent during the same period in 2005 and 2006. Higher demand means higher prices. Venezuelans spend an average of 41 percent of their income on food. The poor spend an even higher percentage. The government sells cheap food through Mercal, a network of subsidized grocery stores, but demand is far greater than supply. Food prices rose by 26 percent in 2006. The government also removed taxes on certain goods, but prices still remain high.
The food angle is where Chávez' revolution is weakest.
Meanwhile the elites who own big farms have been maintaining shortages since Chávez instituted price controls, and worsened those shortages in the month before the referendum. Some items disappeared for days or weeks, forcing people to change their eating habits, or to wait until a product was back on the shelves. Then people stocked up nervously for fear of another shortage. On some days, certain areas of the supermarket are completely empty. When meat cuts vanish from supermarkets, there are only unsavory bits like chicken feet, while costly artificial sweeteners have increasingly replaced sugar.
My point is that Venezuelans are sensitive about food scarcity, and were easily frightened by propaganda. “There will be no food on the shelves! It will be like Cuba!”
Chávez will have to make progress in food self-sufficiency if his revolution is to succeed. He uses the National Guard to maintain control, but it’s still not enough.
In January 2007 the government granted agricultural producers a two-year income tax exemption, and private banks devoted 21 percent of their credit funds to the agricultural sector. But it’s not enough.
Food shortages and price controls have created a black market. In February 07 the government consumer protection office closed down an entire supermarket chain for 48 hours for selling beef at above the regulated price. Other supermarkets responded by ceasing to sell beef. They didn’t want to risk being closed down. This drives people to the black market for food, where they pay very high prices.
Venezuela simply must grow more food.
Truth Seeker-- About those voting machines, I think chavez owns a part of one of those illegal, fixed machine companies, sequoia or similar..unless there are verifiable paper ballots with the public counting and full transparency there will never be fair elections..Abolish electronic machines and use paper ballots...
Who knew? You speak of Communism as if it were the world's savior.
are deeply flawed and propagandized, as is the understanding of capitalism.
There isn't a purely capitalist country on earth. If there were, it wouldn't last a decade before it cannibalized itself.
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"Money" has no value - people do.